Today’s issue explores why Chinese AI labs face monetization tension by going open-source, and why B Capital’s new fund won’t pursue AI models.
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IN FOCUS

  • Open-weight AI models are creating unintended competition
  • B Capital's new US$500 million fund won't go after AI models
  • Microsoft cuts 4,800 jobs, hitting its gaming division the hardest

Hello reader,

Open-weight AI models aren't a charity. Every free release from a Chinese AI lab is a customer acquisition strategy dressed up as an act of generosity, and it has worked well so far.

When the US briefly suspended access to Anthropic's Fable 5 in mid-June over national security concerns, it validated the open-source pitch overnight: Why build upon a model that a single government directive can take away? Z.ai didn't waste a moment, releasing its GLM-5.2 model the very next day.

Our top story today looks at what's actually happening underneath that narrative, and it's not as clean a win for open-source as it first appears. Third-party inference providers are now underselling some Chinese labs on their own models, in some cases by 20 cents per million tokens.

It's a strange position to be in: winning the distribution war while losing out on the economics of it. Every major Chinese AI lab will have to respond to that tension eventually, whether they want to or not.

Meanwhile, our second top story is a reminder that not everyone is willing to bet on the models themselves. B Capital just closed a US$500 million fund, and it's deliberately staying away from large language models, finding them "too expensive." Instead, the investment firm is going after the picks-and-shovels layer: robotics, spacetech, and quantum.

These are, indeed, two different reads on the same AI model boom: one on who profits from openness, the other on who's avoiding the fight entirely.

Glenn Kaonang, journalist


TOP STORIES

1️⃣ Open-weight AI is turning China's distributors into its rivals

As described by an executive at a major Chinese AI lab, inference providers directly poach customers with steep discounts. When price isn't an issue, factors like reliability and geography might contribute to revenue shifting elsewhere.

Whether a lab can survive this squeeze may come down to one of three things: a model so far ahead it's too valuable to give away, an independent monetization engine, or a nudge from the state.

2️⃣ B Capital closes $500m early-stage fund, earmarks 20% for Asia

The fund will write checks of roughly US$2 million for seed deals and US$10 million for series A, with about a fifth of the capital going toward Asia. General partner Karan Mohla points to rising government interests in sovereign space and defense capabilities as a growing source of co-investment opportunities in the region.


A DATA STORY YOU SHOULDN'T MISS

The next Manus might be on this list

China's biggest tech export these days isn't just open-weight models - it's people. Most founders on our list built their early careers at major Chinese tech firms - like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu - before striking out on their own. Manus proved that a Chinese founding team can build a billion-dollar AI exit elsewhere, although the final outcome isn't as tidy as it seemed to be.

Our data story, published in February, tracked 16 companies following a similar playbook regardless. The pattern behind them seems consistent: Alibaba alumni, Tsinghua degrees, and a prior exit back home.

If the next Manus is already out there, this list is probably where it's hiding.


TRENDING NEWS

1️⃣ Microsoft lays off 4,800 as Xbox restructures

The gaming division has taken the brunt, losing 3,200 employees or about 20% of its total headcount. In 2024, Xbox slashed 2,550 jobs in two waves.

2️⃣ Singapore fintech firm M-DAQ expands into Vietnam payments

M-DAQ has partnered with Vietnam-based METech, allowing it to handle direct collection and payout in Vietnamese dong. M-DAQ so far has licenses in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Hong Kong.

3️⃣ AMD Ventures invests in Japan self-driving startup Turing

Turing raised US$79 million in an equity and debt extension to its series A round, and it's reportedly valued at around US$600 million. The deal allows the startup to diversify its chip supply from Nvidia.

4️⃣ Apple supplier Luxshare plans $3.1b Hong Kong listing

Luxshare is set to become Hong Kong's biggest offering so far this year by selling 383.5 million shares at US$8.1 each. Based in Shenzhen, the manufacturer is still closely tied to consumer electronics.

5️⃣ Strategy's $216m bitcoin sale exceeds any since 2020

This marks the company's largest sale since it began buying the token in 2020. Strategy is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, claiming to hold 843,738 bitcoin as of May 25.


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